Foresight

The Amazon’s food systems are under growing pressure from climate change, deforestation, and industrial agricultural expansion, threatening traditional practices and indigenous livelihoods. Using our proprietary XSPFS methodology, we collaborated with WFP to develop four scenarios for different potential medium and long term futures of food systems in the region. The process, grounded in consultations with Indigenous communities, producers, environmental organizations, and policymakers, helped identify entry points and priority areas for WFP’s regional engagement.  Following the project, we launched a webinar series based on the full project report, featuring youth leaders, Indigenous organizers, and food systems experts from Latin America and Africa. The sessions explored foresight in diverse contexts and introduced the Futures Triangle - a simple foresight tool for practical use.

Through our foresight practice, we developed a custom scoping process for Canada’s International Development Research Center’s (IDRC) freshly launched Climate-Resilient Food Systems Program (CRFS) to refine the focus of future programming. In collaboration with the CRFS team we designed a decision support toolkit which included systems tools and foresight exercises, all tested and piloted by our team. This engagement resulted in the custom process and toolkit being used to make strategic decisions on research themes, geographies of focus for research, and approaches to building southern leadership.

Communities around the world are grappling with how climate change, resource pressures, development, and shifting agricultural systems will affect their ability to grow and access food. To support them, the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy commissioned the development of practical scenario planning tools tailored to food systems.

We adapted the Exploratory Scenario Planning process into a modular toolkit with guidelines for facilitators working with diverse stakeholder groups, including condensed versions for platforms with limited time together. Our team tested the toolkit with two platforms—one in South Africa's Western Cape and one in New York's Hudson Valley—to ensure effectiveness across different contexts. The resulting toolkit enables multi-stakeholder food systems platforms to use scenario planning for collaborative decision-making and strategic planning under uncertainty.

In the context of two systematic shocks — COVID-19 and racial tensions rippling across the United States — we collaborated with the Food Systems Dialogues International Secretariat to host an online dialogue event on New York's Hudson Valley.

Through our Foresight Practice, we engaged with 53 local food systems actors to provide direct and diverse perspectives and insights on local food systems. Check out the full summary report for more details.